2009: Year of the Linux Delusion

2009: Year of the Linux Delusion
by Alex Zaharov-Reutt
Thursday, 18 December 2008
Page 1 of 3

!An article has come out claiming (yet again) that 2009 will be the year of Linux, and bases this prediction on the fact that low power ARM processors will be in netbooks which won’t have enough power to run Windows, but then says these new netbooks will be geared to “web only” applications which suits Linux perfectly. And, oh yeah, Palm might save Linux, too.


In a year that saw Linux netbooks appear, and fail to excite consumers, thus handing Microsoft victory in the netbook operating system space, yet another pundit has come out claiming 2009 will be a revolutionary year for Linux.

The article, called “2009: Year Of The Linux Revolution”, from Fast Company’s Chris Dannen, says that netbooks running ARM processors will need a lightweight and pretty version of Linux, written by Canonical, to woo users.

Of course, just because Canonical has done a deal with ARM to write such a version of Linux doesn’t mean it exists yet, with existing Linux distributions doing their best to look like Windows, and do everything that Windows can do.

Dannen starts off by saying that the biggest catalyst for Linux is netbooks, and quotes a Gartner prediction that 50 million netbooks will be sold by 2012, and notes that “right now, many netbooks come pre-loaded with Windows XP”.

Dannen then notes that: “Microsoft has set a deadline of June 2010 for XP installations”, as if this means Microsoft will have no chance once XP is no longer sold, and goes on to say that Vista isn’t an option because it isn’t designed for netbooks and the licensing fee is “too high”.

Well, June 2010 is hardly a downer for Microsoft, given that it plans to have Windows 7 arrive by mid 2009. Should it slip, which seems inconceivable at this stage (an inconceivability that itself was inconceivable in the development of Vista, which slipped several times), June 2010 is clearly more than enough time for Microsoft to get Windows 7 out the door.

On top of all of that, just because Microsoft has said it will discontinue XP by 2010 doesn't mean they can't extend that in the event Windows 7 isn't ready - it's their operating system and they can do what they like.

They’ve already extended XP twice before – what’s another extension, if in the very unlikely event it’s truly needed, especially when security updates and more are planned until 2014?

Dannen then goes on to note that Windows is “coded to index, browse and execute local files quickly and easily -- a task that is almost moot on netbooks, which are geared toward working on the Web”.

Of course, Windows XP has shown that it handles netbooks with aplomb, and works with the web best of all, thanks to having all the browsers, plug-ins, downloads and more you could ever want, something you just can’t claim with good old Linux.